Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom is projected to sink at the domestic box office over its opening weekend.
According to Variety, Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom will likely top the box office, but with an opening between $35 and $40 million, which is much lower than the $67 million the first film took in over its first weekend in 2018.
Something to keep in mind is that the original Aquaman did perform exceedingly well overseas. The movie earned more than $800 million internationally, which when combined with its $335 million domestic gross, put it above $1 billion. It’s entirely possible a good performance internationally will save Aquaman 2, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.
That outlet reports the film had a budget of approximately $205 million, and a rule of thumb for such calculations is that, when marketing costs are factored in, a movie has to make two to three times its budget to break even. Variety claims Warner Bros. has scaled back marketing on Aquaman 2, but that it’s still spent around $100 million.
For comparison, The Flash opened to $55 million and only earned $270 million worldwide. As The Flash had a projected budget of between $200 and $220 million, not including marketing costs, the movie was considered a pretty massive flop for Warner Bros.
There are a few key reasons Aquaman 2 looks doomed at the box office. The biggest, though, is likely that the DC Extended Universe as it was is effectively dead, and a reboot is on the way from Guardians of the Galaxy director James Gunn and producer Peter Safran. The DCEU’s most recent movies have failed to really move the needle, and that’s likely a factor.
Additionally, it’s been tough out there in general for superhero movies. The Marvels, for example, released in November and only earned $204 million worldwide against a budget of more than $200 million.
As for Jason Momoa’s future as Arthur Curry, the actor doesn’t seem optimistic. He recently remarked that Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom would likely end up being his last hurrah as the character unless the movie did really well.
Directed by James Wan, Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom releases on Dec. 22.
